The Stalemate of Weak Supply and Demand Remains Unbroken, SHFE Tin Maintains High Levels at Midday [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on August 29, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) continued to fluctuate at highs, closing at 274,280 yuan/mt at noon, up 1,930 yuan (0.71%) from the previous day. The price briefly hit an intraday high of 274,990 yuan/mt, but upward momentum was constrained by weak demand, maintaining a narrow rangebound fluctuation between 272,500-274,500 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, LME tin prices also strengthened, with LME tin dipping 0.01% to $34,820/mt, near its one-month high, as bullish sentiment grew amid low inventory support.

Macro tailwinds offset fundamental weakness: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, with resilient domestic demand boosting market risk appetite. Dovish signals from US Fed officials intensified expectations for a September interest rate cut, pushing the US dollar index lower. Coupled with the EU's approval of a proposal to cancel tariffs on some US industrial products, commodity valuations gained support. However, sluggish domestic demand recovery limited upside room, while high social inventory diverged from tight overseas stocks, highlighting regional supply-demand imbalances.

Short-term outlook: The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to move sideways within the 272,000-275,000 yuan/mt range. Accelerated production resumptions in Myanmar or weaker-than-expected seasonal restocking could pressure prices downward. Conversely, a combination of macro tailwinds (e.g., US Fed rate cuts) and emerging demand growth may break through previous resistance levels. Monitor Myanmar mine developments, PV installation recovery trends, and LME inventory changes.